Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 3%-6%?
Current price
23.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 23.5%
$6.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market clearly defines how the margin of victory is calculated based on total valid votes cast and relies primarily on certified election results from the state electoral authority. Specific edge-case rules are outlined for exact bracket boundaries (resolving to the higher margin bracket) and potential ties (broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names). There is a long backstop deadline extending to June 30, 2027, which resolves to an 'Other' option if results remain unresolved, and recounting pauses resolution until results are certified. While credible reporting is mentioned as an alternative resolution mechanism, reliance on official certified vote totals makes resolution straightforward.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The 2026 Texas Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Texas Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the Democratic Party candidate wins the 2026 Texas Senate election by a margin of victory between 3% and 6%. It features specific tiebreaking rules based on candidate alphabetical order and boundary rules resolving ties between brackets to the higher bracket.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the Democratic Party nominee wins the election with a margin of victory between 3% and 6% over the second-place candidate, calculated as the absolute difference in valid vote percentages. Values falling exactly on a bracket boundary resolve to the higher bracket. The market resolves to No if the Democratic nominee wins by a different margin, if another candidate wins, or if a tiebreak resolves to a different outcome. If two candidates tie for first place, the tie is broken alphabetically by ballot-listed last name to the lowest margin bracket. If results are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to Other. The primary deciding source is the official certified results from the state electoral authority, though an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Key dates
- Expected election date: — The date the 2026 Texas Senate election is expected to take place.
- Resolution fallback deadline: — Market resolves to Other if results are not definitively known by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Official results published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting
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