Israeli Legislative Election: 2nd Place
2 live outcomes · highest priced: Likud at 67% (−2 pts in 24h) · first close Oct 28, 2026 · $38.7K total volume
About this event
This event tracks the outcome of the 2026 Israeli legislative election, measuring which political party or coalition wins the second-greatest number of seats in the Israeli Knesset.
How the outcomes relate
The event contains one market per party or coalition. Because the rules specify a ranking mechanism with tiebreakers to determine a single party or coalition in the second finishing position, at most one market can resolve Yes.
How it resolves
A market resolves to Yes if its named party or coalition finishes in second place based on Knesset seats won in the 2026 election. Ties are broken first by total valid votes received, and then by alphabetical order of the party/coalition name. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, or official results from the Israeli government and Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) if ambiguous. If results are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the event resolves to Other.
Key dates
- Expected election date: — Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel.
- Definitive result deadline: — Market resolves to Other if results are not definitively known by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or official results reported by the Israeli government, including the Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Likud | 67% | ▼ 2 | Low | Med | |
| Yashar | 31% | ▼ 1 | Low | Med | |
| Together | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Shas | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| The Democrats | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Otzma Yehudit | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Blue and White | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Yisrael Beiteinu | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| United Torah Judaism | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| RZP-Zehut | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Joint List | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Ra'am | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Amcha Yisrael | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Noam | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| The Reservists and the Economic Party | — | — | Not rated | — |