38¢
+2¢ · 24h
Implied probability 38%
$5.7K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
This market clearly defines how the margin of victory is calculated based on total valid votes cast in the 2026 Kansas Senate election. Resolution primarily relies on certified results from the state electoral authority, with an overwhelming consensus of reporting as an alternative. Standard edge cases like recounts, boundary values, replacement nominees, and ties are explicitly covered with clear deterministic rules, though certification timelines may delay final resolution until official counts are finalized.
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
The market fell from 38% to 24%, but available data provides insufficient evidence to identify a likely driver.
The news search didn't complete, so no catalyst is claimed.
AI-generated · 17 Oct 2026, 09:05 UTC
The 2026 Kansas Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Kansas Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history is not displayed yet.
This market measures whether the Republican Party nominee wins the 2026 Kansas U.S. Senate election by a margin of victory between 0% and 5%.
The market resolves to Yes if the official Republican nominee wins the election with a margin of victory between 0% and 5% against the second-place candidate. The margin is the absolute difference between the top two candidates' shares of total valid votes cast. If the margin falls exactly on the boundary between brackets, it resolves to the higher margin bracket. The market resolves to No if another outcome or bracket occurs. It resolves to Other if the results are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, or if an untied winner cannot be determined under specific tiebreaker rules. The primary resolution source is the official certified results published by the state electoral authority, though an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The official results of the 2026 Kansas Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying results, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.