Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Minas Gerais?
Current price
92.1¢
−0.9¢ · 24h
Implied probability 92.1%
$13.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define the winning condition based on the candidate who receives the most valid votes in Minas Gerais during the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. Resolution relies primarily on credible consensus reporting, with an explicit fallback to the official Brazilian electoral authority, the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral). Clear tie-breaker rules and an extended long-stop deadline to resolve as Other if results remain unknown provide strong structural clarity with minimal risk of unexpected resolution.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Minas Gerais, Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the second round of this election from Minas Gerais. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Flavio Bolsonaro will receive the most valid votes in Minas Gerais during the second round of Brazil's presidential election. Unusually, ties in vote totals are broken alphabetically by the candidates' listed full names.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Flavio Bolsonaro wins the most valid votes in Minas Gerais in the second round of the election, or wins an alphabetical tiebreaker if tied for first place. The market resolves to No if another listed candidate wins the most valid votes or wins the tiebreaker. The market resolves to Other if the election result is not definitively known by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by official results from the Brazilian government's Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) if ambiguity arises.
Key dates
- Second round election date: — Scheduled date for the second round of the presidential election in Minas Gerais.
- Resolution cutoff date: — Latest date to determine the definitive result before the market resolves to Other.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or official results from the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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