EVENT · 9 OUTCOMES
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
+4 more outcomesView event →
Markets
2,056 live Polymarket markets in 756 events- LowGotchaBIG MOVE · ▲ 23 PTS
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 20?
No resolution risks flagged4 checks94.1¢+22.6¢ 24hWHY IT MOVED · COIN PRICEBTC (Binance): +0.7% in the move hour, +1.3% over 24 hours. - EVENT · 8 OUTCOMES
Bitcoin above ___ on October 21?
+3 more outcomesView event → - MedGotchaBIG MOVE · ▼ 19 PTS
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 3 MEDIUMResolverWordingExceptions63¢−15.5¢ 24hWHY IT MOVED · NOT ENOUGH EVIDENCENot enough evidence for a likely driver yet. - EVENT · 18 OUTCOMES
What price will Bitcoin hit in October?
+13 more outcomesView event → - EVENT · 6 OUTCOMES
Bitcoin above ___ on October 22?
+1 more outcomesView event → - EVENT · 3 OUTCOMES
MLB World Series Champion 2026
Change in points, 24hView event →Milwaukee Brewers · 7 daysRange 27–66% - EVENT · 5 OUTCOMES
Israel Election: Likud # of seats?
Change in points, 24hView event → - EVENT · 2 OUTCOMES
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place in Amapá
Change in points, 24hView event →Flavio Bolsonaro · 7 daysRange 63–84% - LowGotchaBIG MOVE · ▼ 16 PTS
Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats?
No resolution risks flagged4 checks50¢−9.5¢ 24hWHY IT MOVED · NOT ENOUGH EVIDENCENot enough evidence for a likely driver yet. - EVENT · 3 OUTCOMES
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?
Change in points, 24hView event →No Hormuz Agreement · 7 daysRange 86–97% - LowGotchaBIG MOVE · ▲ 13 PTS
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on October 21?
No resolution risks flagged4 checks53¢+14¢ 24hWHY IT MOVED · COIN PRICEETH (Binance): +1.1% in the move hour, +1.0% over 24 hours. - MedGotchaBIG MOVE · ▲ 13 PTS
Will no next Israeli Minister of Finance be appointed by February 28, 2027?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 3 MEDIUMResolverWordingExceptions38¢+2.5¢ 24hWHY IT MOVED · NOT ENOUGH EVIDENCENot enough evidence for a likely driver yet. - EVENT · 24 OUTCOMES
Democratic VP Nominee 2028
+19 more outcomesView event → - EVENT · 2 OUTCOMES
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by...?
Change in points, 24hView event →December 31 · 7 daysRange 23–36% - EVENT · 3 OUTCOMES
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?
Change in points, 24hView event →No Hormuz Agreement · 7 daysRange 80–95% - EVENT · 3 OUTCOMES
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
Change in points, 24hView event →December 31 · 7 daysRange 30–38% - EVENT · 7 OUTCOMES
What price will Ethereum hit in October?
+2 more outcomesView event → - EVENT · 5 OUTCOMES
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)14%±0≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year)13%±0Dilution of Iran's Uranium13%▲ 1Enriched Uranium Surrender11%▲ 6Iran Reconstruction Funding9%±0Change in points, 24hView event → - EVENT · 5 OUTCOMES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Change in points, 24hView event → - EVENT · 2 OUTCOMES
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?
Change in points, 24hView event →December 31, 2026 · 7 daysRange 34–47% - LowGotcha
Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 MEDIUMResolver59.5¢+11¢ 7d7 daysRange 48.5–66.5¢ - EVENT · 3 OUTCOMES
Next Israeli Minister of Justice?
Change in points, 24hView event →No Next Minister by Feb 28 · 7 daysRange 31–42% - EVENT · 4 OUTCOMES
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
Change in points, 24hView event → - LowGotcha
Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?
No resolution risks flagged4 checks61¢+9.5¢ since Oct 18Since Oct 18Range 51.5–61¢ - LowGotcha
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 New York Attorney General election?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 MEDIUMResolver11.05¢+5.2¢ since Oct 18Since Oct 18Range 5.85–13.45¢ - EVENT · 2 OUTCOMES
Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?
Change in points, 24hView event →No Next Minister by Feb 28 · 7 daysRange 30–43% - EVENT · 16 OUTCOMES
Pro Football: 2027 NFC Champion
San Francisco 49ers26%▲ 4Los Angeles Rams14%▼ 4Seattle Seahawks12%±0Chicago Bears11%▲ 2Minnesota Vikings9%▲ 2+11 more outcomesView event → - LowGotcha
Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by December 31?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 MEDIUMResolver36.5¢+6¢ since Oct 18Since Oct 18Range 30.5–37.5¢ - MedGotcha
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 2 MEDIUMResolverWordingExceptions9¢+6.35¢ 7d7 daysRange 2.5–9¢ - EVENT · 9 OUTCOMES
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro73%▲ 2Delcy Rodríguez17%▼ 5No Head of State2%±0María Corina Machado1%±0Jorge Rodríguez<1%±0+4 more outcomesView event → - EVENT · 8 OUTCOMES
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
Flávio Bolsonaro <4%40%▼ 1Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8%28%▼ 4Lula da Silva <4%21%▲ 2Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12%10%▲ 1Flávio Bolsonaro 12%+3%±0+3 more outcomesView event → - EVENT · 2 OUTCOMES
NATO x Russia military clash by...?
Change in points, 24hView event →December 31 · 7 daysRange 23–32% - EVENT · 14 OUTCOMES
EPL: 2027 Champion
+9 more outcomesView event → - EVENT · 3 OUTCOMES
Israeli Legislative Election Winner
Change in points, 24hView event →Yashar · 7 daysRange 49–75% - EVENT · 2 OUTCOMES
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
Change in points, 24hView event →December 31 · 7 daysRange 6–12% - EVENT · 2 OUTCOMES
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?
Change in points, 24hView event →June 30, 2027 · 7 daysRange 44–64% - EVENT · 6 OUTCOMES
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
+1 more outcomesView event → - EVENT · 11 OUTCOMES
Pro Football: 2027 AFC Champion
Buffalo Bills21%▲ 1Baltimore Ravens14%±0Jacksonville Jaguars12%±0New England Patriots8%▼ 1Denver Broncos8%▲ 1+6 more outcomesView event → - EVENT · 4 OUTCOMES
Alaska Senate Election Margin of Victory (First Round)
Change in points, 24hView event → - EVENT · 5 OUTCOMES
Next leader out of power before 2027?
None before 202751%▼ 5Netanyahu - Israel PM31%▲ 3Sánchez - Spanish PM3%▼ 2Xi - General Secretary of the CCP<1%±0Putin - Russia President<1%±0Change in points, 24hView event → - EVENT · 30 OUTCOMES
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
+25 more outcomesView event → - EVENT · 2 OUTCOMES
Serbia Parliamentary Election Winner
Change in points, 24hView event →Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia · 7 daysRange 61–75% - MedGotcha
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 2 MEDIUMResolverExceptions29.5¢+11.5¢ 7d7 daysRange 17–30¢ - MedGotcha
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGHResolver8.85¢−2.65¢ 7d7 daysRange 2.55–11.5¢ - EVENT · 9 OUTCOMES
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot50%▲ 2Benjamin Netanyahu28%▼ 5Naftali Bennett14%▼ 1Avigdor Lieberman3%▲ 1Itamar Ben Gvir<1%±0+4 more outcomesView event → - EVENT · 2 OUTCOMES
Taipei Mayor Election Winner
Change in points, 24hView event →Chiang Wan-an · 7 daysRange 57–68% - EVENT · 6 OUTCOMES
Texas Senate Election Margin of Victory
+1 more outcomesView event →