Will Trump and Putin not meet?
Current price
15¢
−2.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 15%
$509.3K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify what counts as a meeting by requiring direct in-person interaction, such as a conversation or handshake, while explicitly excluding mere proximity, eye contact, or sharing a room. However, there is no designated official record or authority responsible for certifying whether a qualifying interaction occurred; resolution depends entirely on evaluators determining whether a consensus among credible media reports exists. Additionally, the rule text appears to be adapted from a broader multi-option market on meeting locations, including an extraneous definition of Gulf states, though the core requirement of having no qualifying meeting through December 31, 2026, remains straightforward.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to "No meeting by December 31" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe. A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Trump are all present and interact with each other in person. An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. For this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates). The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin will fail to have an in-person meeting before the specified deadline, as part of a market tracking the location or absence of their next encounter.
How it resolves
The market resolves to "No meeting by December 31" (or Yes for this specific outcome) if no qualifying meeting occurs between market creation and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to the corresponding location outcome (or No for this outcome) if a qualifying meeting takes place within the timeframe. A qualifying meeting requires both individuals to be present and interact directly in person, such as through an exchange of words, a handshake, or direct conversation. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or attending the same event without direct interaction does not qualify. Resolution will be determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- End date: — The market timeframe ends at 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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