Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by December 31?
Current price
37.5¢
+7¢ · 24h
Implied probability 37.5%
$26.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market has straightforward resolution criteria, resolving to Yes if Susie Wiles leaves or ceases to serve as White House Chief of Staff at any point before December 31, 2026. A notable early-resolution provision triggers an immediate Yes resolution upon an official announcement of her resignation or removal, even if the effective departure date is in the future. The primary resolution source is official communication from the administration, with a consensus of credible reporting permitted as a backup, which introduces a moderate degree of decider latitude if reports conflict or precede official White House statements.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Susie Wiles ceases to be the White House Chief of Staff for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Wiles' resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Susie Wiles leaves her position as White House Chief of Staff by December 31, 2026. A notable aspect is that an announcement of her departure immediately triggers a positive resolution, even if the effective departure date is in the future.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Susie Wiles ceases to be the White House Chief of Staff for any period between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of her resignation or removal prior to the market end date resolves the market to Yes immediately, regardless of when the change takes effect. The market resolves to No if she remains in the role and no departure is announced within the timeframe. Resolution will be determined by official information from the Trump administration, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — The deadline by which Susie Wiles must cease to hold the role or have her departure announced.
Resolution source
Official information from the Trump administration, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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