Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?
Current price
37.85¢
−0.7¢ · 24h
Implied probability 37.85%
$572.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market clearly specifies that resolution hinges on who is elected Mayor of Taipei in the November 2026 election, explicitly excluding interim or placeholder appointments made beforehand. Primary resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, but any ambiguity is constrained by an official fallback to Taiwan's Central Election Commission database. A longstop deadline of June 30, 2027 provides ample buffer for certification or recounts, resolving to Other if no outcome is established by then.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Taipei as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Puma Shen will win the next Taipei Mayor election scheduled for November 28, 2026. Temporary, interim, or placeholder appointments made prior to the election are disregarded.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Puma Shen becomes the next Mayor of Taipei as a result of the election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election do not count. The market resolves No if another candidate becomes the next Mayor of Taipei as a result of the election. The market resolves to Other if the election result is not known or no candidate has been elected by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission, deciding any ambiguity.
Key dates
- Election date: — Date of the scheduled Taiwanese local elections.
- Resolution deadline: — Deadline for election results before resolving to Other.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, with official results from the Taiwanese government (Central Election Commission) in case of ambiguity
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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