43.5¢
−6¢ · 24h
Implied probability 43.5%
$113.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
The rules clearly specify that resolution requires an official announcement from Samuel Alito or his official representatives regarding his retirement from the Supreme Court by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The criteria explicitly note that the retirement date itself can be immediate or in the future, and an announcement qualifies even if the retirement does not ultimately take effect. With an unambiguous cutoff time and reliance on official statements, there is minimal discretion or room for misinterpretation.
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
The probability fell from 60% to 50%, but there is insufficient evidence to identify a likely driver for the move.
The news search didn't complete, so no catalyst is claimed.
AI-generated · 18 Oct 2026, 16:05 UTC
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.
Rules history is not displayed yet.
This market measures whether Supreme Court Associate Justice Samuel Alito will announce his retirement by June 30, 2027. Resolution depends solely on an announcement being made, regardless of whether the retirement actually takes effect.
The market resolves to Yes if Samuel Alito announces he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The announced retirement date can be immediate, at the end of the term, or at any future point, and the announcement counts even if the retirement never goes into effect. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. Resolution is determined by official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.
Official announcements from Samuel Alito or one of his official representatives
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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