Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?
Current price
27.5¢
−0.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 27.5%
$246.7K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official government register or designated authority. The rules clearly define what does and does not qualify as leaving office, explicitly excluding resignation announcements, scheduled departure dates, temporary power transfers or impeachment suspensions, and periods served in an interim or caretaker capacity. A market participant must note that a leader announcing their departure will not trigger resolution until the handover is permanent and complete, and if no listed leader permanently leaves office before the December 31, 2026 deadline, the market resolves to the specified fallback outcome.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Benjamin Netanyahu will be the first among a set of listed leaders to permanently leave office before 2027. Resolution requires permanent departure, excluding temporary transfers of power and caretaker or interim roles.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Benjamin Netanyahu is the first listed leader to permanently cease occupying his office before the deadline. An announcement of resignation, removal, or a scheduled departure due to election results does not qualify on its own. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions or provisional power transfers, do not qualify. An individual continuing in a caretaker or interim role is not considered to have left office. The market resolves No (or to another listed leader or 'None before 2027') if another listed leader permanently leaves office first, or if none leave office by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The decider is a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution cutoff: — Criterion must be met by 11:59 PM ET on this date, or the market resolves to 'None before 2027'.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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