Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?
Current price
21.5¢
+1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 21.5%
$3.9M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules provide precise, objective resolution criteria. Resolution is determined strictly by the 1-minute candle high price of the BTC/USDT pair on Binance within a clearly stated timeframe. The market resolves immediately to Yes if the $100,000 threshold is met on or before December 31, 2026, at 23:59 ET, and otherwise resolves to No. The single designated source leaves no room for interpretation or decider discretion, and trades on other exchanges or pairs are explicitly excluded.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 14:00 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Bitcoin reaches a price of $100,000 by December 31, 2026. Resolution relies strictly on 1-minute candle high prices for the BTC/USDT pair on Binance within the specified time window.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes immediately if any Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT between November 24, 2025, 14:00 ET and December 31, 2026, 23:59 ET records a final High price equal to or greater than $100,000. The market resolves to No if no 1-minute candle reaches this threshold during the observation window. Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute chart data is the sole deciding source; prices from other exchanges, trading pairs, or spot markets do not count.
Key dates
- Observation window starts: — 14:00 ET
- Observation window ends: — 23:59 ET
Resolution source
Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute chart
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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