Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?
Current price
55.5¢
+4.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 55.5%
$2.4M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution rules provide unambiguous, objective criteria tied directly to a single named source and trading pair. The market resolves to Yes as soon as any one-minute candle on Binance's BTC/USDT market registers a high price of $90,000 or greater before December 31, 2026 at 23:59 ET, and otherwise resolves to No. The exact chart settings and source URL are specified, and the rules explicitly state that prices from other exchanges or trading pairs will not be considered, leaving virtually no room for interpretation or decider discretion.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
A big move was detected in the last 7 days. No explanation is available for it yet.
Resolution rules
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between the creation of this market and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Bitcoin reaches a price of $90,000 on Binance by December 31, 2026. Resolution is based strictly on the 1-minute candle high prices of the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair, excluding data from other exchanges or trading pairs.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes immediately if any 1-minute candle for the BTC/USDT pair on Binance records a final High price equal to or greater than $90,000 between market creation and December 31, 2026, at 23:59 ET. The market resolves to No if no 1-minute candle reaches this threshold by the cutoff time. Resolution relies strictly on Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle data; prices from other exchanges, spot markets, or alternative trading pairs are not considered.
Key dates
- End date: — Market coverage concludes at 23:59 ET.
Resolution source
Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute chart
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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