Will Pete Buttigieg be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?
Current price
5.1¢
−0.4¢ · 24h
Implied probability 5.1%
$5.3K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify that the market resolves based on the first person formally nominated by the Democratic Party for Vice President in 2028 who accepts the nomination. The outcome is tied to official Democratic Party channels, including their official website, leaving little room for subjective interpretation. The rules also explicitly state that any subsequent replacement of the nominee before election day will not alter the initial resolution.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first individual to be formally nominated by the Democratic Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 Presidential election cycle who accepts the nomination. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Pete Buttigieg will be the Democratic Party's nominee for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 election cycle. Notably, the market locks onto the first person formally nominated who accepts, disregarding any subsequent candidate replacements before election day.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Pete Buttigieg is the first person to be formally nominated for Vice President by the Democratic Party for the 2028 presidential election cycle and accepts the nomination. The market resolves No if someone else is the first formally nominated individual to accept the vice-presidential nomination. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not alter the resolution. The outcome is determined by a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
Consensus of official Democratic Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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