US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?
Current price
38¢
+7.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 38%
$117.5K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market depends heavily on subjective evaluations of whether diplomatic statements constitute an official agreement or mere policy alignments. There is no single designated authority or registry that dictates the outcome; instead, resolution relies on official government statements and a consensus of credible reporting. If an announcement occurs near or before the deadline but its status as a qualifying agreement is unclear, the market includes a specific clause that extends the decision period by up to 14 calendar days to evaluate the totality of information. A holder must be prepared for deciders to exercise significant judgment regarding whether separate statements sufficiently align and confirm mutual commitments regarding Strait of Hormuz traffic.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Med
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between the United States and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agreed actions, policies, obligations, or commitments between the United States and Iran. A qualifying diplomatic agreement must establish Iranian policies, obligations, or commitments aimed at permitting, restoring, or increasing vessel or shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. All listed countries must announce their acceptance of the same qualifying diplomatic agreement for the Payout Condition to be met. A joint announcement will qualify, as will separate announcements from each entity of its own acceptance of an agreement which, taken together, directly indicate that all the listed countries accepted the same agreement. Separate announcements of individual policies will not qualify if the policies are not announced as part of a diplomatic agreement. Each announcement must be a declarative statement that clearly and unambiguously communicates acceptance of an agreement. Statements that reference ongoing negotiations or a prospective agreement, or that allude to or express support for an agreement without confirming acceptance of the agreement, do not qualify. A qualifying announcement need not reference the agreement by name or use specific terminology, provided it clearly communicates acceptance of an agreement. Whether announcements from the listed countries represent a diplomatic agreement and whether such an agreement qualifies will be primarily determined through the announcements themselves. Where an announcement is made by all listed countries but, based on the announcements, it remains ambiguous whether the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the countries, this market will remain open until either i) definitive confirmation that the announcements represent a qualifying diplomatic agreement between the listed entities is achieved through further announcements from the listed countries or a consensus of credible reporting or ii) 14 calendar days (ET) have passed after the date that the last country made their first potentially qualifying announcement. If, at the end of the fourteenth calendar day, no definitive confirmation has been achieved, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the United States and Iran announce a diplomatic agreement regarding vessel or shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if both the US and Iran announce acceptance of the same official diplomatic agreement establishing Iranian commitments to permit, restore, or increase shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31, 11:59 PM ET. Announcements must clearly confirm acceptance; statements referencing ongoing talks or expressing mere support do not qualify. The market resolves to No if no qualifying agreement is announced by the deadline. If announcements are made but ambiguous, the market waits up to 14 calendar days for definitive confirmation before resolving on the totality of information. Resolution is decided using official information from the US and Iranian governments and a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Deadline is 11:59 PM ET for the announcement of a qualifying agreement.
Resolution source
Official information from the governments of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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