Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?
Current price
14.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 14.5%
$1.1M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market rules clearly specify that an official announcement of retirement from Justice Alito or an official representative before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET resolves the market to Yes. It explicitly clarifies that the announcement counts regardless of whether the retirement takes effect immediately or at a future date, and even if the retirement does not ultimately take place. Because resolution relies directly on official statements from the Justice or his office with a clear cutoff time, there is little ambiguity or room for unexpected outcomes.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Supreme Court Associate Justice Samuel Alito announces his retirement by December 31, 2026. Notably, any qualifying announcement triggers resolution even if the retirement is scheduled for the future or never actually takes effect.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The announced retirement timing may be immediate, at the end of the current term, or at any future date, and any qualifying announcement counts even if the retirement never takes effect. The market resolves to No if no qualifying retirement announcement is made by the deadline. Resolution is determined by official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.
Key dates
- Announcement deadline: — 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
Official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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