Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
Current price
24.5¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 24.5%
$562.9K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market includes a specific early resolution condition: an announcement of resignation or removal triggers an immediate positive resolution even if the actual departure date is scheduled for after the December 31 deadline. While official government statements or announcements directly from Pete Hegseth are the primary resolution sources, the decider also reserves the right to resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting, which introduces some latitude in evaluating whether an unconfirmed report constitutes an official announcement.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pete Hegseth's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Pete Hegseth is no longer the U.S. Secretary of Defense by December 31. The market resolves early if his resignation or removal is announced before the end date.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Pete Hegseth ceases to be the U.S. Secretary of Defense at any point between the market's creation and the specified end date. An official announcement of his resignation or removal before the end date will cause an immediate Yes resolution, regardless of the effective date of his departure. The market resolves No if Pete Hegseth remains the U.S. Secretary of Defense continuously throughout the specified period. Resolution will be determined by official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Market end date:
Resolution source
official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·
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