Will Gilad Kariv be the next Israeli Minister of Justice?
Current price
11.85¢
+0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 11.85%
$2.3K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on the first person to take office as Minister of Justice in the first government formed after the 2026 Knesset elections, explicitly excluding interim or caretaker appointees. Holders should be aware of several specific edge-case rules: if the ministry is restructured, deciding whether a new role is a true successor position relies on judging a consensus of credible reporting rather than purely statutory definitions. In the event that duties are split across multiple successor roles, an unusual alphabetical tie-breaker determines the outcome. Additionally, if no qualifying government forms and installs a minister by February 28, 2027, the market resolves to a specific expiration outcome rather than a standard binary result.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of Justice in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections. To count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of Justice will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution. The individual must be appointed as “Minister of Justice” or be appointed to the ministerial position confirmed to be its successor position, retaining its primary responsibilities, by a consensus of credible reporting. Positions that assume only secondary responsibilities will not qualify as a successor. If the primary portfolio responsibilities previously assigned to Minister of Justice are attributable to multiple successor positions, this market will resolve to the individual appointed to one of the successor positions whose full name comes first in alphabetical order. If no such Minister of Justice assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Minister by Feb 28”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Gilad Kariv will be the first person to assume office as the Israeli Minister of Justice in the first government formed after the 2026 Knesset elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Gilad Kariv first assumes office as the Israeli Minister of Justice (or a qualifying successor position holding its primary responsibilities) in the first government formed after the 2026 Knesset elections, approved via a Knesset vote of confidence or subsequent appointment vote. Interim or caretaker ministers do not count. The market resolves to another candidate or No if a different qualifying individual assumes the office first. If multiple successor positions split the primary responsibilities, the individual whose full name comes first alphabetically qualifies. The market resolves to "No Next Minister by Feb 28" if no qualifying minister assumes office by February 28, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided using official information from the Government of Israel or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution cutoff deadline: — Market resolves to 'No Next Minister by Feb 28' if no qualifying minister assumes office by 11:59 PM ET on this date.
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Israel, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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