Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?
Current price
36.5¢
−4¢ · 24h
Implied probability 36.5%
$975.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules provide clear and objective criteria tied directly to a single specified data feed: Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candles. The market resolves to Yes if any 1-minute candle reaches a low of $70,000 or below between market creation and 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Data from other exchanges or pairs is explicitly excluded, leaving no room for subjective interpretation or decider discretion.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) from the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the year specified in the title has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No”. Price action before this market's creation will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT “High” and “Low” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with the chart settings on “1m” (one-minute candles) selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) drops to $70,000 or lower by December 31, 2026, based solely on 1-minute candle data from Binance.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if any Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT has a final Low price equal to or below $70,000 between the creation of the market and 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. The market resolves to No if no such candle meets the threshold by that time. Price action prior to market creation is disregarded, and price data from other exchanges, trading pairs, or spot markets is not considered. The outcome is determined strictly by Binance 1-minute candle price data for BTC/USDT.
Key dates
- End date: — Final cutoff at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026.
Resolution source
Binance
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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