Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?
Current price
9¢
+6.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 9%
$199.7K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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Resolution relies either on official statements from North Korea or a consensus of credible reporting, leaving significant discretion to the decider in evaluating opaque events or rumors from a closed regime. Terms like being effectively removed or permanently prevented from fulfilling duties introduce interpretive room if health or leadership crises arise without explicit official confirmation. Additionally, an announcement of resignation or removal triggers immediate positive resolution even if the actual transfer of power is scheduled for a later date.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kim Jong Un ceases to be Supreme Leader of North Korea for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Kim Jong Un's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Kim Jong Un and the government of North Korea; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Kim Jong Un ceases to be the Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026. The market can resolve early if an announcement of his resignation or removal is made before the end date.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Kim Jong Un ceases to be Supreme Leader of North Korea for any period between market creation and December 31, 2026. This includes if he is detained, effectively removed, or permanently prevented from fulfilling his duties. An announcement of his resignation or removal before the end date will immediately resolve the market to Yes, regardless of when it takes effect. The market resolves No if Kim Jong Un remains Supreme Leader of North Korea continuously through December 31, 2026. The resolution source will be official information from Kim Jong Un and the government of North Korea. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used for resolution.
Key dates
- Market End Date: — Eastern Time (ET)
Resolution source
official information from Kim Jong Un and the government of North Korea; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-2.5-flash ·
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