Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?
2 live outcomes · highest priced: No Next Minister by Feb 28 at 36% (+7 pts in 24h) · first close Mar 1, 2027 · $79.6K total volume
About this event
This event tracks who will become the next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs in the first government formed after the 2026 Knesset elections, or whether no minister will assume office by the specified deadline.
How the outcomes relate
The event consists of candidate markets alongside a fallback market for no minister taking office by the deadline. Because the rules specify resolution to the single individual who first assumes office (or the fallback option if none does), at most one outcome can resolve Yes.
How it resolves
A candidate market resolves Yes if that individual first assumes office as Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections, approved via a Knesset vote of confidence or subsequent confirmation vote. Interim or caretaker ministers do not count. If primary responsibilities split across multiple successor positions, resolution defaults to the minister whose name is first alphabetically. If no qualifying individual assumes office by February 28, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the fallback outcome resolves Yes and candidate markets resolve No.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — 11:59 PM ET deadline for a qualifying Minister of Foreign Affairs to assume office.
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Israel, or a consensus of credible reporting.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Next Minister by Feb 28 | 36% | ▲ 7 | Med | Med | |
| Gadi Eizenkot | 16% | ±0 | Med | Med | |
| Avigdor Lieberman | 13% | ±0 | Med | Med | |
| Gideon Sa’ar | — | — | Med | Med | |
| Yair Lapid | — | — | Not rated | Med | |
| Israel Katz | — | — | Not rated | Med | |
| Benny Gantz | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Yossi Cohen | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Ron Dermer | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Eli Cohen | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Amir Ohana | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Naftali Bennett | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Yair Golan | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Yoram Cohen | — | — | Not rated | — |