Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?
Current price
59.5¢
−3¢ · 24h
Implied probability 59.5%
$469.2K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The resolution terms are clear, focusing directly on the winner of the scheduled November 2026 Taipei mayoral election. Resolution primarily relies on a consensus of credible media reporting, but explicitly names the Taiwanese Central Election Commission as the authoritative backup source if any ambiguity arises. Interim appointments prior to the election are explicitly excluded, and a generous timeout date of June 30, 2027 provides ample buffer for any certification delays or legal challenges to conclude.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Taipei as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Chiang Wan-an wins the next Taipei Mayor election scheduled for November 28, 2026, disregarding any temporary, interim, or placeholder appointments made before the election.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Chiang Wan-an becomes the next Mayor of Taipei as a result of the November 28, 2026 election, excluding temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the vote. The market resolves to No if another candidate becomes the next Mayor of Taipei as a result of this election. The market resolves to Other if the election outcome is not known or no candidate has been elected by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided by a consensus of credible reporting, or solely by the Taiwanese government's Central Election Commission if ambiguity exists.
Key dates
- Election date: — Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held.
- Resolution cutoff: — Market resolves to Other if no outcome is known by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting, or official results from the Taiwanese government (Central Election Commission)
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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