Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?
2 live outcomes · highest priced: June 30, 2027 at 44% (−6 pts in 24h) · first close Jan 1, 2027 · $1.2M total volume
About this event
This event tracks whether Associate Justice Samuel Alito announces his retirement from the Supreme Court of the United States on or before specific deadline dates.
How the outcomes relate
The markets represent a chronological ladder of deadline dates. Because each market asks if the announcement occurs by a specific date, an announcement made before an earlier deadline would cause that market and all subsequent later deadline markets to resolve Yes. Multiple markets can resolve Yes.
How it resolves
A market resolves to Yes if Samuel Alito announces his retirement from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, it resolves to No. The announced timing can be immediate, at the end of the term, or at any future point. Any qualifying announcement counts even if the retirement does not ultimately go into effect.
Key dates
- First deadline: — Deadline at 11:59 PM ET
- Second deadline: — Deadline at 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
Official announcements from Samuel Alito or one of his official representatives
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30, 2027 | 44% | ▼ 6 | Low | Med | |
| December 31 | 14% | ±0 | Low | High |