Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by...?
2 live outcomes · highest priced: December 31 at 28% (−5 pts in 24h) · first close Nov 1, 2026 · $293.1K total volume
About this event
This event tracks whether an official ceasefire agreement between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis is announced by specific deadline dates. Each market measures whether both parties announce acceptance of a qualifying general pause in direct military engagement before the designated cutoff time.
How the outcomes relate
The event consists of a series of date-based thresholds. Because each market checks whether an announcement occurs by its specific deadline, an announcement qualifying before an earlier deadline would also qualify for later deadlines, meaning multiple markets can resolve Yes.
How it resolves
A market resolves Yes if a qualifying ceasefire agreement between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis is announced by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, it resolves No. Both parties must unambiguously announce acceptance of the same agreement, either jointly or separately, featuring an explicit, dated commitment to suspend direct military engagement across the general conflict. Limited pauses, unilateral actions, or informal understandings do not qualify. If announcements are ambiguous, resolution may be delayed up to 7 calendar days to confirm details based on the totality of information.
Key dates
- October deadline: October 31 at 11:59 PM ET (year not specified in rules)
- December deadline: December 31 at 11:59 PM ET (year not specified in rules)
Resolution source
Official information from the government of Saudi Arabia and Houthi leadership, or a consensus of credible reporting.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 28% | ▼ 5 | Med | High | |
| October 31 | 5% | ▲ 1 | Med | High |