What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
4 live outcomes · highest priced: ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) at 13% · first close Jan 1, 2027 · $1.3M total volume
About this event
This event tracks specific terms and provisions that could be included in a formal diplomatic agreement between the United States and Iran by the end of 2026, such as uranium enrichment limits, moratoria, stockpile dilution, and reconstruction funding.
How the outcomes relate
The event contains multiple distinct propositions regarding potential terms of a US-Iran deal. More than one market can resolve Yes if an agreement includes multiple qualifying commitments (for instance, a full enrichment moratorium also qualifies as a 0% enrichment cap).
How it resolves
Each market resolves to Yes if a written diplomatic instrument between the United States and Iran containing the specified provision (committed to for at least one year) is mutually signed or formally adopted by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it resolves to No. The instrument may be signed or adopted via joint statements, official resolutions, or diplomatic notes, even if not yet entered into force or later repudiated. If signed in time but full text is delayed, resolution may wait up to 28 days for text release.
Key dates
- Agreement deadline: — Deadline for mutual signing or formal adoption at 11:59 PM ET.
- Text release extension period: Up to 28 calendar days after the deadline if full text release is pending.
Resolution source
Official communications from the governments of the United States and Iran or their authorized representatives, and a consensus of credible reporting from major news agencies of record.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) | 13% | ±0 | Low | Med | |
| Dilution of Iran's Uranium | 12% | ±0 | Low | Med | |
| Iran Reconstruction Funding | 9% | ±0 | Med | Med | |
| Enriched Uranium Surrender | 5% | ±0 | Low | High | |
| Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) | 14% | ±0 | Low | Med | |
| 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium | 10% | ±0 | Low | Med |