Will no listed leader be out before 2027?
Current price
50.5¢
−5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 50.5%
$195.6K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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Resolution relies on an informal consensus of credible reporting rather than a designated official gazette or government transition record. The rules carefully specify edge cases, noting that resignation announcements, scheduled departures after elections, temporary suspensions, and ongoing caretaker or interim service do not qualify as leaving office until the permanent transfer of power takes full effect. An outcome depends on whether any listed leader permanently vacates their post prior to the December 31, 2026 cutoff.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
A big move was detected in the last 7 days. No explanation is available for it yet.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether none of the specified leaders permanently leave their listed offices before 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves according to the first listed individual to cease occupying their office. It resolves to 'None before 2027' if no listed individual meets the departure criteria by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Only permanent removal qualifies; announcements of resignation, scheduled departures, temporary removals (such as impeachment suspensions or provisional transfers of power), and continuing in a caretaker or interim role do not count as leaving office. A consensus of credible reporting decides the resolution.
Key dates
- Cutoff date: — Market resolves to 'None before 2027' if no leader permanently departs by 11:59 PM ET on this date.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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