Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee?
Current price
10.5¢
+1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 10.5%
$10K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on the first individual who is formally nominated for Vice President by the Democratic Party for the 2028 election cycle and accepts that nomination. Resolution relies on official Democratic Party sources, including the national party website. The rules explicitly clarify that any subsequent replacement of the nominee prior to election day will not alter the initial outcome, which aligns closely with standard expectations for convention nomination markets.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first individual to be formally nominated by the Democratic Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 Presidential election cycle who accepts the nomination. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will be the first person formally nominated by the Democratic Party for Vice President of the United States in the 2028 presidential election cycle who accepts the nomination. Resolution depends solely on the initial accepted nomination, meaning any subsequent replacement before election day is disregarded.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is the first individual formally nominated by the Democratic Party for Vice President in the 2028 presidential election cycle and accepts the nomination. The market resolves No if another individual is the first formally nominated person who accepts the vice-presidential nomination. Any replacement of the nominee prior to election day will not change the resolution. A consensus of official Democratic Party sources decides the outcome.
Key dates
No key dates are identified in this explainer.
Resolution source
A consensus of official Democratic Party sources
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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