NATO x Russia military clash by...?
2 live outcomes · highest priced: December 31 at 26% (−2 pts in 24h) · first close Nov 1, 2026 · $4.8M total volume
About this event
This event tracks whether a direct military clash will occur between the armed forces of a NATO member country and Russia by specified dates in 2026.
How the outcomes relate
The event consists of multiple timeline thresholds. Because these markets represent cumulative deadlines, an earlier clash would result in more than one market resolving Yes, meaning multiple outcomes can resolve Yes.
How it resolves
A market resolves Yes if a qualifying military encounter occurs between Russian forces and the military of a NATO country before the market's specific deadline (e.g., October 31, 2026, or December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, it resolves No. A military encounter requires the use of force, including missile strikes, artillery fire, gunfire, or shooting down non-munition UAVs. It excludes airspace violations, warning shots, cyberattacks, ramming/physical collisions without weapons, and intercepts of munitions targeting third parties. Military contractors only qualify if confirmed under direct state command. Resolution is based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- October 31, 2026 deadline: — Deadline at 11:59 PM ET for the October 31 market
- December 31, 2026 deadline: — Deadline at 11:59 PM ET for the December 31 market
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 26% | ▼ 2 | Med | Med | |
| October 31 | 10% | ▼ 2 | Med | High |