Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Current price
16.5¢
−4.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 16.5%
$2.4M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define what constitutes officially holding the role of head of state, anchoring resolution to a precise timestamp of December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. The resolution path is well-ordered, starting with official statements from the UN-recognized government of Venezuela, followed by a specific United Nations protocol directory as a named fallback, with credible reporting only used if official channels fail to provide clarity. The rules also explicitly detail what scenarios do not count as officially holding office and provide unambiguous tie-breaking criteria if multiple individuals claim the title.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Delcy Rodríguez officially holds the position of head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. Resolution relies on formal appointment and official recognition rather than unconfirmed, expired, or successor status.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Delcy Rodríguez is formally appointed, confirmed (if required), sworn in, or confirmed by official government information as the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Individuals merely nominated, appointed with a future effective date, resigned, terminated, or serving in an unofficial, successor, or oversight capacity do not qualify. The market resolves No if another individual holds the role. If no individual holds the position, it resolves to No Head of State. If multiple heads of state are listed, primary status or earlier assumption of office decides. Official information from the UN-recognized government of Venezuela decides resolution, with the United Nations list of heads of state and credible reporting consensus as fallbacks.
Key dates
- Snapshot time: — Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET
Resolution source
Official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela, the United Nations, and consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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