Will Xi Jinping be the next leader out before 2027?
Last captured price
0.3¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.3%
$46.1K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than a specified official record or government transition registry. The rules explicitly define departure mechanics, clarifying that announcements, scheduled transitions, temporary suspensions, and caretaker periods do not count until permanent loss of office occurs. Because this question depends on whether the subject leaves before other listed individuals, resolution hinges on relative timing against competitors rather than an absolute event in isolation, with the market resolving to a negative fallback outcome if no listed leader leaves before the end of 2026.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Xi Jinping is the first among the listed leaders to permanently leave office before 2027. It requires an actual, permanent departure rather than merely an announced resignation, scheduled departure, or temporary removal.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes for Xi Jinping if he is the first listed individual to permanently cease occupying his office before the deadline. Announcements of departure, scheduled election exits, temporary suspensions, or transitions to interim or caretaker roles do not count as leaving office. The market resolves No if another listed leader permanently leaves office first. It resolves to "None before 2027" if no listed individual permanently leaves office by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The outcome is decided by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Market end date: — The deadline by which a listed leader must permanently leave office.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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