US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
Current price
36.7¢
+1.35¢ · 24h
Implied probability 36.7%
$3.5M total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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Resolution relies directly on official statements from the United States government or authorized bodies such as the Department of Defense, Department of State, or CENTCOM. While the sources and deadline are well-defined, holders must evaluate whether ambiguous policy statements meet the threshold of an official, declarative end or suspension rather than a partial exemption or contingent plan. The rules specify that precise phrasing is not required as long as the substantive policy change is clearly communicated, meaning the market decider must interpret the scope of official diplomatic or military statements. Additionally, the market resolves immediately upon a qualifying announcement even if the blockade is never lifted in practice or the policy is later reversed.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the United States government officially announces the end, lifting, or suspension of its naval blockade on Iranian ships and customers by December 31, 2026. It resolves based solely on an official announcement being made, regardless of whether the policy is later reversed or actually carried out in practice.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if the US government or an authorized representative publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the naval blockade on Iranian ships and customers by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying announcements must be definitive statements of a general cessation or non-implementation of the blockade, rather than partial exemptions, speculative reports, or contingent plans, and resolve to Yes even if subsequently reversed. The market resolves to No if no qualifying official announcement occurs by the deadline. Resolution is decided using official communications from the US government, including the President, Department of Defense, Department of State, or CENTCOM.
Key dates
- Blockade reinstatement announced: — Date on which Trump announced the reinstatement of the naval blockade on Iran.
- Resolution deadline: — Market resolves at 11:59 PM ET if no qualifying announcement has been made.
Resolution source
Official information from the United States government, including the President, Department of Defense, Department of State, and CENTCOM
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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