Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
Current price
9¢
+0.9¢ · 24h
Implied probability 9%
$2M total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The market title omits the target year, but the rules explicitly set the deadline as December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The rules clearly distinguish between ending all enrichment (which qualifies, even if temporary or conditional) and merely capping or reducing enrichment levels (which does not qualify). However, resolution relies entirely on a consensus of credible reporting to judge whether diplomatic statements or bilateral frameworks qualify as an official public pledge by Iran, leaving room for interpretation if statements are ambiguous or disputed.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Iran publicly agrees to completely halt all uranium enrichment by December 31, 2026. Notably, temporary pauses, unilateral pledges, or preconditions to broader peace talks qualify, whereas agreements merely limiting enrichment levels do not.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Iran publicly agrees or officially pledges to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Qualifying actions include unilateral announcements, pacts with the United States or Israel, agreements lasting for any duration, and preconditions to a wider peace deal, regardless of when or if implementation takes effect. Agreements that merely cap or limit enrichment quality or levels, such as staying below weapons-grade thresholds, do not qualify for Yes. The market resolves to No if no qualifying agreement or pledge is made by the deadline. A consensus of credible reporting decides the resolution.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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