Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
2 live outcomes · highest priced: December 31 at 7% (+1 pts in 24h) · first close Nov 1, 2026 · $2.5M total volume
About this event
This event tracks whether Iran will publicly agree to surrender any portion of its enriched uranium stockpile by specific target dates in 2026.
How the outcomes relate
The event consists of multiple date-based milestone markets. Because an agreement made before an earlier deadline also occurs before later deadlines, more than one market in this event can resolve Yes.
How it resolves
A market resolves to Yes if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile—transferring, shipping, or placing any amount under the custody or control of an entity outside Iran and its influence (excluding aligned non-state armed groups)—by 11:59 PM ET on the specified date. Pledges qualify whether unilateral or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel, even as preconditions, regardless of when effective. Merely capping enrichment does not qualify. Otherwise, it resolves to No based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- October 31, 2026 deadline: — 11:59 PM ET
- December 31, 2026 deadline: — 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 7% | ▲ 1 | Med | High | |
| October 31 | 1% | ▼ 1 | Med | High |