Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
Current price
7¢
+1.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 7%
$2.4M total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify what constitutes surrendering enriched uranium, explicitly stating that an agreement involving any amount counts and that pledges qualify even if they are unfinalized preconditions or have not yet taken effect. However, no official authority or international agency such as the IAEA is designated to decide resolution; instead, the market depends entirely on a consensus of credible reporting, leaving evaluators with substantial latitude to interpret news coverage and official statements.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count. To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors). Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Iran publicly agrees to surrender any portion of its enriched uranium stockpile to an outside entity by December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Iran publicly agrees or officially pledges to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. To qualify, the agreement must specify that the stockpile, or any portion of it, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the control or custody of an entity outside Iran and its influence, excluding Iranian-aligned groups or non-state armed actors. Unilateral pledges, bilateral agreements with the U.S. or Israel, or agreements serving as preconditions for peace processes qualify regardless of when or if they go into effect. Agreements merely limiting or capping enrichment levels do not qualify. The market resolves to No if no qualifying agreement is made by the deadline. The resolution is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — The deadline for Iran to publicly agree to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile.
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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