Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026?
Current price
23.5¢
+2¢ · 24h
Implied probability 23.5%
$631.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market has clear and objective resolution mechanics. It resolves to Yes if any one-minute candle on Binance for the BTC/USDT pair shows a low price at or below $65,000 between market creation and 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. A single, direct trading pair on a named exchange is designated as the sole data source, leaving virtually no room for decider interpretation or ambiguity.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) from the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the year specified in the title has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No”. Price action before this market's creation will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT “High” and “Low” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with the chart settings on “1m” (one-minute candles) selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the price of Bitcoin dips to $65,000 or lower by December 31, 2026. Resolution is strictly tied to 1-minute candle data on Binance for the BTC/USDT pair.
How it resolves
This market resolves to Yes if any Binance 1-minute candle for the BTC/USDT trading pair records a final Low price equal to or below $65,000 between the creation of the market and 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Price action occurring prior to the market's creation is disregarded. This market resolves to No if no 1-minute candle reaches or falls below $65,000 by the deadline. The outcome is decided solely using Binance 1-minute candle data for BTC/USDT, excluding prices from any other exchange, spot market, or trading pair.
Key dates
- Market expiration: — 11:59 PM ET on the last day of 2026
Resolution source
Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute chart
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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