Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey?
Current price
0.4¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.4%
$86K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define what constitutes an in-person meeting versus mere shared presence, but resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official record or specific government announcement. Additionally, the text includes artifact clauses from a broader multi-option market, such as a definition for Gulf states and a specific 'No meeting by December 31' outcome, though the core requirement of an in-person interaction between the named individuals remains straightforward.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to "No meeting by December 31" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe. A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Trump are all present and interact with each other in person. An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. For this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates). The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether the next in-person meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin takes place in Turkey on or before December 31, 2026.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin have their next qualifying meeting in Turkey between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A qualifying meeting requires both individuals to be present and engage in direct in-person interaction, such as a handshake, direct conversation, or verbal exchange; mere proximity or shared attendance without interaction does not qualify. The market resolves to No if their next meeting occurs in a different location or if no qualifying meeting takes place by the deadline. The outcome is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Market deadline: — Latest time for a qualifying meeting to occur.
Resolution source
A consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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