Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Israeli Minister of Justice?
Current price
8.5¢
−0.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 8.5%
$6.3K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The title asks simply if Gideon Sa'ar will be the next Minister of Justice, but the fine print contains critical constraints that could surprise market participants. It specifically requires the appointment to occur in the first government formed after the 2026 Knesset elections, explicitly excluding any interim or caretaker appointments, as well as any appointments made during the current Knesset term before the 2026 election. Resolution also includes an alphabetical tie-breaker if responsibilities are split among successor ministries, and sets an absolute cutoff of February 28, 2027, resolving to a specific negative outcome if no government forms in time. Determination relies primarily on official Israeli government information, but falls back on a consensus of credible reporting to identify successor portfolios.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- High
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of Justice in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections. To count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of Justice will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution. The individual must be appointed as “Minister of Justice” or be appointed to the ministerial position confirmed to be its successor position, retaining its primary responsibilities, by a consensus of credible reporting. Positions that assume only secondary responsibilities will not qualify as a successor. If the primary portfolio responsibilities previously assigned to Minister of Justice are attributable to multiple successor positions, this market will resolve to the individual appointed to one of the successor positions whose full name comes first in alphabetical order. If no such Minister of Justice assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Minister by Feb 28”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Gideon Sa'ar will be the first person to assume office as Israeli Minister of Justice in the first government formed after the 2026 Knesset elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes for Gideon Sa'ar if he is the first individual to assume office as Minister of Justice (or an approved successor position retaining primary responsibilities) in the first government formed after the 2026 Knesset elections, confirmed via a Knesset vote of confidence or appointment vote. Interim or caretaker ministers and subsequent replacements do not qualify. The market resolves No for Gideon Sa'ar if another individual assumes the qualifying role first. If multiple successor positions share primary responsibilities, the appointee whose full name comes first alphabetically qualifies. The market resolves to "No Next Minister by Feb 28" if no qualifying individual assumes office by February 28, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is decided using official information from the Government of Israel or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Market resolves to "No Next Minister by Feb 28" if no qualifying minister assumes office by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Israel, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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