Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?
Current price
59¢
+3¢ · 24h
Implied probability 59%
$479.4K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly specify the outcome conditions based on official rankings from France Football and UEFA for the 2026 men's Ballon d'Or. Definite contingency provisions are established, resolving 50-50 in the event of a tie, cancellation, or failure to publish rankings before the explicit November 9, 2026 deadline. Secondary reporting is only used alongside standard official bodies.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Mbappé" if Kylian Mbappé finishes higher than Lamine Yamal in the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking. This market will resolve to "Yamal" if Lamine Yamal finishes higher than Kylian Mbappé. The 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is scheduled to take place in London on October 26, 2026. If both players are given the same placement in the official ranking, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the award is postponed after November 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or the official placements of both players have not been published within this timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from France Football and/or UEFA, including the official Ballon d'Or ranking; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal finishes higher in the official men's 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Mbappé if Kylian Mbappé places higher than Lamine Yamal in the official ranking. The market resolves to Yamal if Lamine Yamal places higher than Kylian Mbappé. The market resolves to 50-50 if both players receive the same official placement. The market also resolves to 50-50 if the award is canceled, postponed beyond November 9, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, or if official placements for both players are not published by that deadline. Resolution is decided using official information from France Football and/or UEFA, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Scheduled ceremony date: — The 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is scheduled to take place in London.
- Resolution deadline: — Market resolves 50-50 if postponed beyond 11:59 PM ET or if placements are unpublished.
Resolution source
France Football and/or UEFA, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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