Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?
2 live outcomes · highest priced: December 31, 2026 at 40% (+5 pts in 24h) · first close Dec 1, 2026 · $461.3K total volume
About this event
This event tracks whether a qualifying direct or indirect senior-level diplomatic meeting between official representatives of the United States and Iran occurs by specific target dates.
How the outcomes relate
The event is structured as a series of date-based deadlines. Because a meeting occurring before an earlier deadline would also satisfy any later deadline, multiple markets can resolve Yes if an early meeting occurs.
How it resolves
Each market resolves to Yes if a direct or indirect senior-level diplomatic meeting between authorized U.S. and Iranian representatives takes place by 11:59 PM ET on the listed date; otherwise, it resolves to No. Qualifying participants must be senior officials (such as heads of state, foreign ministers, cabinet ministers, or designated special envoys). Meetings may be direct in-person encounters or indirect sessions via authorized intermediaries if both delegations are in the same facility, venue, or city on the same day. Chance encounters, photo ops, and remote discussions do not qualify.
Key dates
- October 31, 2026 deadline: — Deadline for the October 31, 2026 market at 11:59 PM ET.
- November 30, 2026 deadline: — Deadline for the November 30, 2026 market at 11:59 PM ET.
- December 31, 2026 deadline: — Deadline for the December 31, 2026 market at 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Official information from the governments of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 40% | ▲ 5 | Med | Med | |
| November 30, 2026 | 25% | ▲ 3 | Low | Med | |
| October 31, 2026 | — | — | Not rated | Med |