Next Israeli Minister of Justice?
2 live outcomes · highest priced: No Next Minister by Feb 28 at 41% (+5 pts in 24h) · first close Mar 1, 2027 · $52.1K total volume
About this event
This event tracks who will first take office as the Israeli Minister of Justice in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections. Each market corresponds to a specific candidate or the possibility that no qualifying minister assumes office by the stated deadline.
How the outcomes relate
The event contains candidate-specific markets and a fallback outcome. Because the rules state the event resolves to the first individual who assumes office as Minister of Justice in the newly formed government, at most one candidate outcome can resolve Yes, or the fallback outcome resolves Yes if no individual assumes office by the deadline.
How it resolves
A candidate market resolves to Yes if that individual first assumes office as Israeli Minister of Justice (or a qualifying successor position retaining primary portfolio responsibilities) in the first government formed after the 2026 Knesset elections, approved via a Knesset vote of confidence or approval vote. Interim or caretaker ministers do not qualify. If multiple successor positions share primary responsibilities, the individual whose full name comes first alphabetically qualifies. If no qualifying minister takes office by February 28, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'No Next Minister by Feb 28'.
Key dates
- Resolution Deadline: — Deadline is 11:59 PM ET; if no qualifying minister has assumed office by this time, the fallback outcome resolves Yes.
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Israel, or a consensus of credible reporting.
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Next Minister by Feb 28 | 41% | ▲ 5 | Med | Med | |
| Gilad Kariv | 12% | ▲ 1 | Med | Med | |
| Ayelet Shaked | 2% | ±0 | Med | Low | |
| Yariv Levin | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Gideon Sa’ar | — | — | Not rated | Med | |
| Amir Ohana | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Simcha Rothman | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Ofir Katz | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Orit Farkash-Hacohen | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Oded Forer | — | — | Not rated | — | |
| Tally Gotliv | — | — | Not rated | — |