Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027?
Current price
5.25¢
+0.1¢ · 24h
Implied probability 5.25%
$52.4K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market requires the leader to fully and permanently vacate office rather than merely announce a resignation or lose an election before the actual transition takes place. Notably, holding on in a caretaker or interim capacity does not count as having left office, and temporary suspensions or provisional transfers of power are excluded. Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting rather than an official government gazette or registry, leaving the determination of whether an exit is finalized or interim to broad media reporting.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- High
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Pedro Sánchez is the first leader among the listed individuals to permanently leave office before 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Pedro Sánchez is the first listed leader to permanently cease occupying his office before the deadline. Announcements of resignations, scheduled departures from election outcomes, temporary suspensions, provisional power transfers, or continuing in a caretaker or interim capacity do not qualify. The market resolves No if another listed individual is the first to permanently cease occupying their office. The market resolves to None before 2027 if no listed leader permanently vacates office by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. A consensus of credible reporting decides the resolution.
Key dates
- Market deadline: — December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Resolution source
Consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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