Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Current price
0.3¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.3%
$1.3M total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules provide clear and structured criteria for what constitutes holding the head of state role, pegging the evaluation to an exact timestamp on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. Resolution relies primarily on official government announcements from the UN-recognized administration, backed by a specified United Nations protocol directory as a direct fallback if ambiguity arises. Detailed negative criteria explicitly exclude unsworn nominees, expired terms, and acting or unofficial capacities, leaving little room for unexpected interpretations.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Jorge Rodríguez will officially hold the position of head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Jorge Rodríguez is officially holding the position of head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. Officially holding the role requires being formally appointed, confirmed (if required), and sworn in, or confirmed by official government information. Unofficial capacities, expired terms, pending nominations, future effective dates, successor designations, or oversight roles do not qualify. The market resolves No if another individual holds the role or if no individual holds it. If multiple leaders are listed, the individual with primary status or who assumed office first resolves. Resolution is determined by official information from the UN-recognized government of Venezuela, with the UN protocol list and credible reporting consensus as fallbacks.
Key dates
- Determination time: — The market evaluates who holds the head of state position as of 12 PM ET.
Resolution source
Official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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