Will no next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs be appointed by February 28, 2027?
Current price
35¢
+0.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 35%
$27.3K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market specifically tracks the first foreign minister in the government formed after the 2026 Knesset elections, meaning any cabinet reshuffle or new appointment under the current Knesset term will not trigger resolution. Interim or caretaker ministers are explicitly excluded, and Knesset approval via a vote of confidence is required. If ministerial duties are restructured or split across multiple successor roles, identifying which position retains primary responsibilities relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with an alphabetical tiebreaker on the appointee's full name if multiple successor roles share primary duties. Official Israeli government publications serve as the primary source, backed by consensus reporting.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
A big move was detected in the last 7 days. No explanation is available for it yet.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections. To count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of Foreign Affairs will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution. The individual must be appointed as “Minister of Foreign Affairs” or be appointed to the ministerial position confirmed to be its successor position, retaining its primary responsibilities, by a consensus of credible reporting. Positions that assume only secondary responsibilities will not qualify as a successor. If the primary portfolio responsibilities previously assigned to Minister of Foreign Affairs are attributable to multiple successor positions, this market will resolve to the individual appointed to one of the successor positions whose full name comes first in alphabetical order. If no such Minister of Foreign Affairs assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Minister by Feb 28”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether an Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs takes office in the first government formed after the 2026 Knesset elections by February 28, 2027.
How it resolves
The market resolves to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs (or its recognized primary successor position) in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections. The minister must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence or a subsequent confirmation vote; interim or caretaker ministers do not count, and later replacements are disregarded. If responsibilities are split across multiple successor positions, the person whose full name comes first alphabetically wins. The market resolves to 'No Next Minister by Feb 28' if no qualifying minister assumes office by February 28, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Official information from the Government of Israel or a consensus of credible reporting decides.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — Market resolves to 'No Next Minister by Feb 28' if no qualifying minister assumes office by 11:59 PM ET.
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Israel or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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