Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Current price
0.55¢
±0¢ · 24h
Implied probability 0.55%
$1.6M total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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While the title asks broadly about who will be the leader of Venezuela, the resolution rules strictly define this as the person who officially holds the post of head of state on December 31, 2026, at 12 PM ET. The rules require the individual to be formally sworn in, confirmed, or validated by official government information, with the United Nations protocol list serving as the explicit fallback if the government does not clearly identify the head of state. De facto leadership, informal influence, mere designation as a successor, or oversight roles do not qualify under the rules. In a disputed political scenario where an opposition figure exercises real authority but lacks formal swearing-in or UN recognition, the market will resolve against them.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Deep book at the daily check: a spread of 1¢ or less and at least $50K of orders within 5¢ of the mid.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether María Corina Machado officially holds the position of head of state of Venezuela as of December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if María Corina Machado officially holds the position of head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET, meaning she was formally appointed, confirmed, and sworn in, or confirmed by official government information. Individuals who are merely nominated, announced, pending effective appointment, acting in an unofficial capacity, or whose terms expired do not qualify. The market resolves to No if another person officially holds the role or if no individual holds the position. If multiple heads of state are listed, primary status or earliest assumption date decides. The primary resolution source is official information from the UN-recognized government of Venezuela, with fallbacks to the UN and credible reporting.
Key dates
- Target date and time: — Position evaluated on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET
Resolution source
Official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela, with the UN and credible reporting as fallbacks
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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