Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?
Current price
35.5¢
−3¢ · 24h
Implied probability 35.5%
$973.1K total volume · YES/NO
Low gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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The rules clearly define the exact metric, threshold, and timeframe required for resolution. Resolution relies solely on the final High price of 1-minute candles on the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair before 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Because a specific trading pair and charting timeframe on a single named exchange serve as the sole deterministic data source, there is negligible decider latitude or timing ambiguity.
- Wording ambiguity
- Low
- Source discretion
- Low
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Low
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
A big move was detected in the last 7 days. No explanation is available for it yet.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) between the creation of this market through 11:59 PM ET on the last day of the year specified in the title has a final "High" price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No”. Price action before this market's creation will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Bitcoin reaches a price of $95,000 by December 31, 2026. Resolution relies exclusively on 1-minute candle high prices for the BTC/USDT pair on Binance, disregarding price action from all other trading pairs and exchanges.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if any Binance 1-minute candle for the BTC/USDT trading pair records a final High price equal to or greater than $95,000 between the market's creation and 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Price action occurring prior to the market's creation is not considered. The market resolves to No if no 1-minute candle meets or exceeds $95,000 by the deadline. Resolution is decided strictly using Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute chart data, and prices from other exchanges, spot markets, or alternative trading pairs are excluded.
Key dates
- End date: — Final cutoff time at 11:59 PM ET for Bitcoin to reach the target price.
Resolution source
Binance
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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