Venezuela leader end of 2026?
16 live outcomes · highest priced: Nicolás Maduro at 73% (+1 pts in 24h) · first close Dec 31, 2026 · $98.4M total volume
About this event
This event tracks who will officially hold the office of head of state of Venezuela at the close of 2026. Each market represents a potential candidate or the condition where no individual holds the position.
How the outcomes relate
The event consists of candidate markets alongside a "No Head of State" option. The rules specify that the market is mutually exclusive, meaning at most one outcome can resolve Yes.
How it resolves
Each market resolves based on who officially holds the position of head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. An individual officially holds the role if they were formally appointed, confirmed (if required), and sworn in, or otherwise confirmed by official government information. If multiple individuals are listed, resolution favors the one with primary status, or the one who assumed office first. If no individual holds the office, "No Head of State" resolves Yes. Other candidate outcomes resolve No.
Key dates
- Evaluation deadline: — Evaluated at 12:00 PM ET
Resolution source
Official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela, with fallback to information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
| Outcome | Price | 24h | Gotcha risk | Tradability | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolás Maduro | 73% | ▲ 1 | Low | High | |
| Delcy Rodríguez | 18% | ▼ 7 | Low | High | |
| No Head of State | 2% | ±0 | Low | High | |
| María Corina Machado | 1% | ±0 | Med | High | |
| Jorge Rodríguez | <1% | ±0 | Low | High | |
| Edmundo González | <1% | ±0 | Low | High | |
| Marco Rubio | <1% | ±0 | Low | High | |
| Pete Hegseth | <1% | ±0 | Low | High | |
| Frank Donovan | <1% | ±0 | Low | High | |
| Diosdado Cabello Rondón | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| Dinorah Figuera | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| Donald Trump | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| Vladimir Padrino López | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| Evan Pettus | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| Dan Caine | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low | |
| Richard Grenell | <1% | ±0 | Low | Low |