EVENT · 9 OUTCOMES
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
+4 more outcomesView event →
Geopolitics markets
227 live Polymarket markets in 131 events- MedGotchaBIG MOVE · ▼ 22 PTS
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 3 MEDIUMResolverWordingExceptions65¢−14.5¢ 24hWHY IT MOVED · NOT ENOUGH EVIDENCENot enough evidence for a likely driver yet. - EVENT · 2 OUTCOMES
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by...?
Change in points, 24hView event →December 31 · 7 daysRange 23–36% - EVENT · 3 OUTCOMES
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
Change in points, 24hView event →December 31 · 7 daysRange 30–38% - EVENT · 5 OUTCOMES
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)14%±0≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year)13%±0Dilution of Iran's Uranium13%▲ 1Enriched Uranium Surrender11%▲ 6Iran Reconstruction Funding9%±0Change in points, 24hView event → - EVENT · 5 OUTCOMES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Change in points, 24hView event → - EVENT · 2 OUTCOMES
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?
Change in points, 24hView event →December 31, 2026 · 7 daysRange 34–46% - LowGotcha
Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 MEDIUMResolver60¢+10.5¢ 7d7 daysRange 49.5–66.5¢ - EVENT · 4 OUTCOMES
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
Change in points, 24hView event → - MedGotcha
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 2 MEDIUMResolverWordingExceptions5¢+2.35¢ 7d7 daysRange 2.5–9¢ - EVENT · 9 OUTCOMES
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro73%▲ 1Delcy Rodríguez17%▼ 5No Head of State2%±0María Corina Machado1%±0Jorge Rodríguez<1%±0+4 more outcomesView event → - EVENT · 2 OUTCOMES
NATO x Russia military clash by...?
Change in points, 24hView event →December 31 · 7 daysRange 23–32% - EVENT · 2 OUTCOMES
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
Change in points, 24hView event →December 31 · 7 daysRange 6–12% - EVENT · 6 OUTCOMES
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
+1 more outcomesView event → - EVENT · 5 OUTCOMES
Next leader out of power before 2027?
None before 202751%▼ 5Netanyahu - Israel PM31%▲ 3Sánchez - Spanish PM3%▼ 2Xi - General Secretary of the CCP1%±0Putin - Russia President<1%±0Change in points, 24hView event → - MedGotcha
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 2 MEDIUMResolverExceptions29.5¢+12.5¢ 7d7 daysRange 17–30¢ - MedGotcha
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGHResolver9¢−2.5¢ 7d7 daysRange 2.55–11.5¢ - MedGotcha
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUMResolverWording27.5¢−1¢ since Oct 14Since Oct 14Range 25.5–30.5¢ - EVENT · 3 OUTCOMES
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
Change in points, 24hView event →December 31 · 7 daysRange 14–18% - MedGotcha
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUMExceptionsResolver40.5¢±0¢ 7d7 daysRange 36.5–41.5¢ - EVENT · 10 OUTCOMES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
December 31, 202769%±0November 30, 202764%▲ 1June 30, 202748%▼ 1May 31, 202746%▼ 1March 31, 202731%±0+5 more outcomesView event → - EVENT · 3 OUTCOMES
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
Change in points, 24hView event →December 31 · 7 daysRange 12–14% - MedGotcha
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 2 MEDIUMResolverTimingExceptions9.5¢−1.5¢ 7d7 daysRange 8.5–11.5¢ - MedGotcha
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 3 MEDIUMResolverWordingExceptions19¢−3.5¢ 7d7 daysRange 18.5–22.5¢ - MedGotcha
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 3 MEDIUMResolverWordingExceptions71.5¢−8¢ 7d7 daysRange 69–81.5¢ - MedGotcha
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUMResolverWording1.95¢−1.85¢ 7d7 daysRange 1.5–3.85¢ - EVENT · 4 OUTCOMES
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?
Change in points, 24hView event → - MedGotcha
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 MEDIUMExceptions6.5¢±0¢ 7d7 daysRange 4.5–6.5¢ - MedGotcha
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUMResolverWording9.5¢−1¢ 7d7 daysRange 9.5–11.5¢ - LowGotcha
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 MEDIUMExceptions11.5¢−5¢ 7d7 daysRange 10.5–16.5¢ - EVENT · 4 OUTCOMES
Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?
Change in points, 24hView event → - MedGotcha
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUMResolverWording4.5¢−1¢ 7d7 daysRange 4.5–5.5¢ - MedGotcha
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUMResolverWording15.5¢−2¢ 7d7 daysRange 14.5–17.5¢ - LowGotcha
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
No resolution risks flagged4 checks2.55¢+1.7¢ 7d7 daysRange 0.45–2.55¢ - MedGotcha
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 2 MEDIUMResolverWordingExceptions2.1¢−0.15¢ 7d7 daysRange 1.95–2.25¢ - MedGotcha
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 3 MEDIUMResolverTimingWording+12.75¢−0.1¢ 7d7 daysRange 2.65–2.95¢ - EVENT · 2 OUTCOMES
Putin out as President of Russia by...?
Change in points, 24hView event →June 30, 2027 · 7 daysRange 10–11% - MedGotcha
Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUMResolverWording0.25¢−0.35¢ 7d7 daysRange 0.25–1.05¢ - LowGotcha
Macron out by December 31, 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 MEDIUMResolver3.85¢−0.3¢ 7d7 daysRange 3.1–6.25¢ - EVENT · 4 OUTCOMES
Iran leadership change by...?
Change in points, 24hView event → - MedGotcha
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 2 MEDIUMWordingExceptions2.55¢−0.1¢ 7d7 daysRange 2.35–2.65¢ - EVENT · 2 OUTCOMES
Saudi airspace closed by...?
Change in points, 24hView event →December 31 · Since Oct 15Flat at 17% - MedGotcha
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 2 MEDIUMResolverWordingExceptions6.85¢+2.7¢ 7d7 daysRange 4.15–8.4¢ - MedGotcha
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 2 MEDIUMResolverWordingExceptions17.5¢−4¢ 7d7 daysRange 16–22.5¢ - EVENT · 2 OUTCOMES
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?
Change in points, 24hView event →December 31 · 7 daysRange 9–13% - EVENT · 2 OUTCOMES
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Change in points, 24hView event →December 31 · 7 daysRange 7–9% - MedGotcha
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 2 MEDIUMResolverWordingExceptions9.5¢−1¢ 7d7 daysRange 9.5–10.5¢ - MedGotcha
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUMResolverWording6.5¢+0.5¢ 7d7 daysRange 5.5–7.5¢