Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?
Current price
15.5¢
+0.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 15.5%
$19.4K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves based on the first qualifying Foreign Minister appointed in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections, explicitly excluding interim or caretaker appointees. The rules introduce significant complexity and potential surprise regarding successor roles: if the ministry is restructured, determining which office retains primary responsibilities depends on a consensus of credible reporting, and if responsibilities split across multiple posts, an alphabetical tie-breaker on the appointee's full name is used. Additionally, if no qualifying government or minister is confirmed by February 28, 2027, the market resolves to a specific timeout outcome rather than evaluating intervening appointments. Official government records serve as the primary source, with credible reporting as a fallback.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- High
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections. To count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of Foreign Affairs will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution. The individual must be appointed as “Minister of Foreign Affairs” or be appointed to the ministerial position confirmed to be its successor position, retaining its primary responsibilities, by a consensus of credible reporting. Positions that assume only secondary responsibilities will not qualify as a successor. If the primary portfolio responsibilities previously assigned to Minister of Foreign Affairs are attributable to multiple successor positions, this market will resolve to the individual appointed to one of the successor positions whose full name comes first in alphabetical order. If no such Minister of Foreign Affairs assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Minister by Feb 28”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Gadi Eizenkot will be the first person to assume office as Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections.
How it resolves
The market resolves Yes if Gadi Eizenkot first assumes office as Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs, or its primary successor position, in the first government formed after the 2026 Knesset elections, approved via a Knesset vote of confidence or subsequent confirmation. Interim or caretaker ministers do not count. The market resolves to another candidate or No if another individual assumes the qualifying office first. If primary responsibilities are split among multiple successor roles, the position holder whose full name comes first alphabetically resolves the market. The market resolves to "No Next Minister by Feb 28" if no qualifying minister assumes office by February 28, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. Resolution is determined using official Government of Israel information, supplemented by a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — 11:59 PM ET deadline for a qualifying minister to assume office
Resolution source
Official information from the Government of Israel, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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