EVENT · 8 OUTCOMES
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
+3 more outcomesView event →
Markets
328 live Polymarket markets in 204 events- MedGotchaBIG MOVE · ▼ 22 PTS
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 3 MEDIUMResolverWordingExceptions65¢−14.5¢ 24hWHY IT MOVED · NOT ENOUGH EVIDENCENot enough evidence for a likely driver yet. - EVENT · 4 OUTCOMES
Israel Election: Likud # of seats?
Change in points, 24hView event → - EVENT · 3 OUTCOMES
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?
Change in points, 24hView event →No Hormuz Agreement · 7 daysRange 86–97% - MedGotchaBIG MOVE · ▲ 13 PTS
Will no next Israeli Minister of Finance be appointed by February 28, 2027?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 3 MEDIUMResolverWordingExceptions37.5¢+2¢ 24hWHY IT MOVED · NOT ENOUGH EVIDENCENot enough evidence for a likely driver yet. - EVENT · 2 OUTCOMES
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by...?
Change in points, 24hView event →December 31 · 7 daysRange 23–36% - EVENT · 3 OUTCOMES
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?
Change in points, 24hView event →No Hormuz Agreement · 7 daysRange 80–95% - EVENT · 3 OUTCOMES
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
Change in points, 24hView event →December 31 · 7 daysRange 30–38% - EVENT · 5 OUTCOMES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Change in points, 24hView event → - EVENT · 3 OUTCOMES
Next Israeli Minister of Justice?
Change in points, 24hView event →No Next Minister by Feb 28 · 7 daysRange 31–42% - MedGotcha
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 MEDIUMResolver38.5¢−7.5¢ 7d7 daysRange 33.5–46¢ - EVENT · 2 OUTCOMES
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
Change in points, 24hView event →December 31 · 7 daysRange 34–44% - EVENT · 2 OUTCOMES
Next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?
Change in points, 24hView event →No Next Minister by Feb 28 · 7 daysRange 30–43% - MedGotcha
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 2 MEDIUMResolverWordingExceptions5¢+2.35¢ 7d7 daysRange 2.5–9¢ - EVENT · 8 OUTCOMES
Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
Flávio Bolsonaro <4%40%▲ 3Flávio Bolsonaro 4-8%28%▼ 2Lula da Silva <4%21%▲ 2Flávio Bolsonaro 8-12%10%▲ 1Flávio Bolsonaro 12%+3%±0+3 more outcomesView event → - EVENT · 2 OUTCOMES
NATO x Russia military clash by...?
Change in points, 24hView event →December 31 · 7 daysRange 23–32% - EVENT · 2 OUTCOMES
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
Change in points, 24hView event →December 31 · 7 daysRange 6–12% - MedGotcha
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 2 MEDIUMResolverExceptions72¢+23.5¢ 7d7 daysRange 48.5–74.5¢ - EVENT · 6 OUTCOMES
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
+1 more outcomesView event → - EVENT · 2 OUTCOMES
Alaska Senate Election Margin of Victory (First Round)
Change in points, 24hView event →Peltola 3-6% · Since Oct 18Range 30–36% - EVENT · 5 OUTCOMES
Next leader out of power before 2027?
None before 202751%▼ 5Netanyahu - Israel PM31%▲ 3Sánchez - Spanish PM3%▼ 2Xi - General Secretary of the CCP1%±0Putin - Russia President<1%±0Change in points, 24hView event → - MedGotcha
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 2 MEDIUMResolverExceptions29.5¢+12.5¢ 7d7 daysRange 17–30¢ - MedGotcha
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGHResolver9¢−2.5¢ 7d7 daysRange 2.55–11.5¢ - EVENT · 7 OUTCOMES
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Benjamin Netanyahu28%▼ 4Naftali Bennett14%▼ 1Avigdor Lieberman3%▲ 1Itamar Ben Gvir<1%±0Ofer Winter<1%±0+2 more outcomesView event → - EVENT · 2 OUTCOMES
Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Change in points, 24hView event →$400M · Since 00:56 UTCRange 82–85% - MedGotcha
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUMResolverWording27.5¢−1¢ since Oct 14Since Oct 14Range 25.5–30.5¢ - MedGotcha
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUMExceptionsResolver40.5¢±0¢ 7d7 daysRange 36.5–41.5¢ - EVENT · 5 OUTCOMES
Largest Company end of December 2026?
Change in points, 24hView event → - MedGotcha
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 3 MEDIUMResolverTimingExceptions21.5¢−3.5¢ 7d7 daysRange 21.5–25.5¢ - MedGotcha
AI bubble burst in 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 3 MEDIUMTimingWordingExceptions8.6¢+2.45¢ 7d7 daysRange 6.1–12.4¢ - EVENT · 9 OUTCOMES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
December 31, 202769%±0November 30, 202764%▲ 1June 30, 202748%▼ 1May 31, 202746%▼ 1March 31, 202731%±0+4 more outcomesView event → - EVENT · 3 OUTCOMES
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
Change in points, 24hView event →December 31 · 7 daysRange 12–14% - MedGotcha
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 2 MEDIUMResolverTimingExceptions9.5¢−1.5¢ 7d7 daysRange 8.5–11.5¢ - MedGotcha
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 3 MEDIUMResolverWordingExceptions19¢−3.5¢ 7d7 daysRange 18.5–22.5¢ - EVENT · 3 OUTCOMES
Georgia Governor Election Margin of Victory (First Round)
Change in points, 24hView event →Jackson 0-3% · Since Oct 18Range 25–28% - MedGotcha
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 3 MEDIUMResolverWordingExceptions71.5¢−8¢ 7d7 daysRange 69–81.5¢ - MedGotcha
Will Russia win the UEFA EURO 2028?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 MEDIUMExceptions0.25¢+0.2¢ 7d7 daysRange 0.05–4.1¢ - MedGotcha
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUMResolverWording1.95¢−1.85¢ 7d7 daysRange 1.5–3.85¢ - MedGotcha
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 MEDIUMExceptions13.5¢−1¢ 7d7 daysRange 11.5–15.5¢ - EVENT · 4 OUTCOMES
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...?
Change in points, 24hView event → - MedGotcha
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 MEDIUMExceptions6.5¢±0¢ 7d7 daysRange 4.5–6.5¢ - MedGotcha
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUMResolverWording9.5¢−1¢ 7d7 daysRange 9.5–11.5¢ - EVENT · 8 OUTCOMES
Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?
+3 more outcomesView event → - MedGotcha
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUMResolverWording4.5¢−1¢ 7d7 daysRange 4.5–5.5¢ - MedGotcha
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 1 MEDIUMResolverWording15.5¢−2¢ 7d7 daysRange 14.5–17.5¢ - MedGotcha
Trump out as President before 2027?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 2 MEDIUMResolverWordingExceptions3.65¢−0.15¢ 7d7 daysRange 3.35–4.15¢ - MedGotcha
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 2 MEDIUMResolverWordingExceptions2.1¢−0.15¢ 7d7 daysRange 1.95–2.25¢ - MedGotcha
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
RESOLUTION RISKS · 1 HIGH · 3 MEDIUMResolverTimingWording+12.75¢−0.1¢ 7d7 daysRange 2.65–2.95¢