Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before March 31, 2027?
Current price
18¢
−1.5¢ · 24h
Implied probability 18%
$4K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
Show less
Participants should be aware that the question assumes Friedrich Merz becomes Chancellor, but the rules state the market resolves to 'Yes' if he ceases to hold the office for any period by the deadline, or if an announcement of his resignation or removal is made before the end date. Because an announcement triggers immediate 'Yes' resolution regardless of when it takes effect, a declared future departure will close the market right away. Furthermore, if he never becomes Chancellor in the first place, the literal text would resolve to 'No' (as he would not cease to be Chancellor), which could surprise anyone expecting cancellation or a conditional premise. Determination relies on German government statements or a consensus of credible reporting, granting deciders latitude if reports conflict.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- High
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Friedrich Merz leaves the office of Chancellor of Germany before March 31, 2027. Notably, an announcement of his resignation or removal before the deadline triggers an immediate resolution, even if the departure takes effect later.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Friedrich Merz ceases to be Chancellor of Germany for any period by March 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. It also resolves immediately to Yes if an announcement of his resignation or removal occurs before the end date, regardless of when it takes effect. The market resolves to No if he remains in office and no such departure or announcement occurs by the deadline. The resolution source is the government of Germany, though a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Key dates
- Resolution deadline: — End date for Friedrich Merz to cease being Chancellor or announce resignation/removal
Resolution source
The government of Germany, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
Community forecast
Community forecasting arrives with the forecast tools.