Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?
Current price
18.5¢
−3¢ · 24h
Implied probability 18.5%
$472.4K total volume · YES/NO
Medium gotcha risk
Gotcha risk — resolution-rule assessment
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This market resolves early to Yes upon an announcement of resignation or removal, even if the actual departure date falls after the market deadline or is later reversed before taking effect. There is also potential ambiguity around what constitutes being effectively removed or permanently prevented from fulfilling duties without a formal resignation. While official government statements serve as the primary source, the rules allow fallback to a consensus of credible reporting, giving the resolver latitude in interpreting announcements or incapacitation.
- Wording ambiguity
- Med
- Source discretion
- Med
- Timing risk
- Low
- Exceptional clauses
- Med
Liquidity
Moderate book at the daily check: a spread over 1¢, or less than $50K within 5¢ of the mid. Larger orders may move the price, so check the book before sizing.
Why it moved
No big moves in the last 7 days.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pedro Sánchez ceases to be Prime Minister of Spain for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pedro Sánchez's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pedro Sánchez and the government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rules history
Rules history is not displayed yet.
Market explained
This market measures whether Pedro Sánchez leaves the office of Prime Minister of Spain by December 31, 2026. Notably, an announcement of his resignation or removal triggers an immediate Yes resolution, regardless of its effective date.
How it resolves
The market resolves to Yes if Pedro Sánchez ceases to be Prime Minister of Spain for any period between market creation and December 31, 2026 (ET). An announcement of his resignation or removal before the end date also immediately triggers a Yes resolution, regardless of when it takes effect. Additionally, if he is detained, effectively removed, or permanently prevented from fulfilling his duties during this timeframe, the market resolves to Yes. Otherwise, the market resolves to No. Resolution is determined using official information from Pedro Sánchez and the government of Spain, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Key dates
- End date: — Pedro Sánchez must leave office, be removed, or announce resignation by this date (ET).
Resolution source
Official information from Pedro Sánchez and the government of Spain, or a consensus of credible reporting
AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash ·
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